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PRMIA Exam 8010 Topic 8 Question 60 Discussion
Topic #: 8
Which of the following statements are true in relation to Monte Carlo based VaR calculations:
1. Monte Carlo VaR relies upon a full revalution of the portfolio for each simulation
2. Monte Carlo VaR relies upon the delta or delta-gamma approximation for valuation
3. Monte Carlo VaR can capture a wide range of distributional assumptions for asset returns
4. Monte Carlo VaR is less compute intensive than Historical VaR
Monte Carlo VaR computations generally include the following steps:
1. Generate multivariate normal random numbers, based upon the correlation matrix of the risk factors
2. Based upon these correlated random numbers, calculate the new level of the risk factor (eg, an index value, or interest rate)
3. Use the new level of the risk factor to revalue each of the underlying assets, and calculate the difference from the initial valuation of the portfolio. This is the portfolio P&L.
4. Use the portfolio P&L to estimate the desired percentile (eg, 99th percentile) to get and estimate of the VaR.
Monte Carlo based VaR calculations rely upon full portfolio revaluations, as opposed to delta/delta-gamma approximations. As a result, they are also computationally more intensive. Because they are not limited by the range of instruments and the properties they can cover, they can capture a wide range of distributional assumptions for asset returns. They also tend to provide more robust estimates for the tail, including portions of the tail that lie beyond the VaR cutoff.
Therefore I and III are true, and the other two are not.
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