James Walker is the Chief Financial Officer for Lothar Corporation, a U .S . mining company that specializes in worldwide exploration for and excavation of precious metals. Lothar Corporation generally tries to maintain a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 45% and has successfully done so for the past seven years. Due to the time lag between the discovery of an extractable vein of metal and the eventual sale of the excavated material, the company frequently must issue short-term debt to fund its operations. Issuing these one to six month notes sometimes pushes Lothar's debt to capital ratio above their long-term target, but the cash provided from the short-term financing is necessary to complete the majority of the company's mining projects.
Walker has estimated that extraction of silver deposits in southern Australia has eight months until project completion. However, funding for the project will run out in approximately six months. In order to cover the funding gap. Walker will have to issue short-term notes with a principal value of $1,275,000 at an unknown future interest rate. To mitigate the interest rate uncertainty, Walker has decided to enter into a forward rate agreement (FRA) based on LIBOR which currently has a term structure as shown in Exhibit 1.
Three months after establishing the position in the forward rate agreement, LIBOR interest rates have shifted causing the value of Lothar's FRA . position to change as well. The new LIBOR term structure is shown in Exhibit 2.
While Walker is estimating the change in the value of the original FRA position, he receives a memo from the Chief Operating Officer of Lochar Corporation, Maria Steiner, informing him of a major delay in one of the company's South African mining projects. In the memo, Stciner states the following: "As usual, the project delay will require a short-term loan to cover funding shortage that will accompany the extra time until project completion. I have estimated that in 210 days, we will require a 90-day project loan in the amount of $2,350,000.1 would like you to establish another FRA position, this time with a contract rate of 6.95%."
Which of the following is least likely a reason Walker has chosen to use forward contracts instead of futures contracts?
The customizable nature of forward contracts makes them less equipped for offsetting transactions. In order to create an offsetting transaction, a counterparty must be found that is willing to accept the exact terms of the existing forward contract. This is an unlikely occurrence. Futures on the other hand are standardized and creating an offsetting transaction is simple since the clearinghouse is the counterparty to all transactions and is continually making a market for all futures contracts. (Study Session 16, LOS 59.c)
Stan Loper is unfamiliar with the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing model and plans to use a two-period binomial model to value some call options. The stock of Arbor Industries pays no dividends and currently trades for $45. The up-move factor for the stock is 1.15, and the risk-free rate is 4%. He is considering buying two-period European style options on Arbor Industries with a strike price of S40. The delta of these options over the first period is 0.83.
Loper is curious about the effect of time on the value of the calls in the binomial model, so he also calculates the value of a one-period European style call option with a strike price of 40.
Loper is also interested in using the BSM model to price European and American call and put options. He is concerned, however, whether the assumptions necessary to derive the model are realistic. The assumptions he is particularly concerned about are:
* The volatility of the option value is known and constant.
* Stock prices are lognormally distributed.
* The continuous risk-free rate is known and constant.
Loper would also like to value options on Rapid Repair, Inc., common stock, but Rapid pays dividends, so Loper is uncertain what the effect will be on the value of the options. Loper uses the two-period model to value long positions in the Rapid Repair call and put options without accounting for the fact that Rapid Repair pays common dividends.
The value of the one-period European style call option is closest to:
The payoff is zero for a down-move and 11.75 for an up-move. Since the probability of
an up-move is 0.607 the present value is
(Study Session 17, LOS60.b)
Michelle Norris, CFA, manages assets for individual investors in the United States as well as in other countries. Norris limits the scope of her practice to equity securities traded on U .S . stock exchanges. Her partner, John Witkowski, handles any requests for international securities. Recently, one of Norris's wealthiest clients suffered a substantial decline in the value of his international portfolio. Worried that his U .S . allocation might suffer the same fate, he has asked Norris to implement a hedge on his portfolio. Norris has agreed to her client's request and is currently in the process of evaluating several futures contracts. Her primary interest is in a futures contract on a broad equity index that will expire 240 days from today. The closing price as of yesterday, January 17, for the equity index was 1,050. The expected dividends from the index yield 2% (continuously compounded annual rate). The effective annual risk-free rate is 4.0811%, and the term structure is flat. Norris decides that this equity index futures contract is the appropriate hedge for her client's portfolio and enters into the contract.
Upon entering into the contract, Norris makes the following comment to her client:
"You should note that since we have taken a short position in the futures contract, the price we will receive for selling the equity index in 240 days will be reduced by the convenience yield associated with having a long position in the underlying asset. If there were no cash flows associated with the underlying asset, the price would be higher. Additionally, you should note that if we had entered into a forward contract with the same terms, the contract price would most likely have been lower but we would have increased the credit risk exposure of the portfolio."
Sixty days after entering into the futures contract, the equity index reached a level of 1,015. The futures contract that Norris purchased is now trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for a price of 1,035. Interest rates have not changed. After performing some calculations, Norris calls her client to let him know of an arbitrage opportunity related to his futures position. Over the phone, Norris makes the following comments to her client:
"We have an excellent opportunity to earn a riskless profit by engaging in arbitrage using the equity index, risk-free assets, and futures contracts. My recommended strategy is as follows: We should sell the equity index short, buy the futures contract, and pay any dividends occurring over the life of the contract. By pursuing this strategy, we can generate profits for your portfolio without incurring any risk."
Sixty days after the inception of the futures contract on the equity index, Norris has suggested an arbitrage strategy. Evaluate the appropriateness of the strategy. The strategy is:
First, calculate the continuously compounded risk-free rate as ln( 1.040811) = 4% and then calculate the theoretically correct futures price as follows:
Then, compare the theoretical price to the observed market price: 1.035 - 1,025 = 10. The futures contract is overpriced. To take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity, the investor should sell the (overpriced) futures contract and buy the underlying asset (the equity index) using borrowed funds. Norris has suggested the opposite. (Study Session 16, LOS 59.f)
Charles Mabry manages a portfolio of equity investments heavily concentrated in the biotech industry. He just returned from an annual meeting among leading biotech analysts in San Francisco. Mabry and other industry experts agree that the latest industry volatility is a result of questionable product safety testing methodologies. While no firms in the industry have escaped the public attention brought on by the questionable safety testing, one company in particular is expected to receive further attention---Biological Instruments Corporation (BIC), one of several long biotech positions in Mabry's portfolio. Several regulatory agencies as well as public interest groups have heavily criticized the rigor of BIC's product safety testing.
In an effort to manage the risk associated with BIC, Mabry has decided to allocate a portion of his portfolio to options on BIC's common stock. After surveying the derivatives market, Mabry has identified the following European options on BIC common stock:
Mabry wants to hedge the large BIC equity position in his portfolio, which closed yesterday (June 1) at $42 per share. Since Mabry is relatively inexperienced with utilizing derivatives in his portfolios, Mabry enlists the help of an analyst from another firm, James Grimell.
Mabry and Grimell arrange a meeting in Boston where Mabry discusses his expectations regarding the future returns of BIC's equity. Mabry expects BIC equity to make a recovery from the intense market scrutiny but wants to provide his portfolio with a hedge in case BIC has a negative surprise. Grimell makes the following suggestion:
"If you want to avoid selling the BIC position and are willing to earn only the risk-free rate of return, you should sell calls and buy puts on BIC stock with the same market premium. Alternatively, you could buy put options to manage the risk of your portfolio. I recommend waiting until the vega on the options rises, making them less attractive and cheaper to purchase."
If the premium on Put D on November 1 is $3.18, which of the following has most likely occurred?
The premium on Put D has risen from $2.31 to $3.18 and there is srill time left until expiration. Therefore, the increase in value must have come from either a decrease in stock price, an increase in volatility, or both of these events. Choice A would be correct if the option was at expiration and the $3.18 represented only intrinsic value. Since we are not yet at the expiration date, the stock price must be above $26.82. A negative earnings surprise would most likely cause a drop in the market price of the stock. Since there is no indication of the exact amount of the drop in price, the premium observed is a possibility. A decrease in BIG volatility would reduce the put premium, not increase it. (Study Session 17, LOS 60.d)
Rock Torrey, an analyst for International Retailers Incorporated (IRI), has been asked to evaluate the firm's swap transactions in general, as well as a 2-year fixed for fixed currency swap involving the U .S . dollar and the Mexican peso in particular. The dollar is Torrey's domestic currency, and the exchange rate as of June 1,2009, was $0.0893 per peso. The swap calls for annua! payments and exchange of notional principal at the beginning and end of the swap term and has a notional principal of $100 million. The counterparty to the swap is GHS Bank, a large full-service bank in Mexico.
The current term structure of interest rates for both countries is given in the following table:
Torrey believes the swap will help his firm effectively mitigate its foreign currency exposure in Mexico, which sterns mainly from shopping centers in high-end resorts located along the eastern coastline. Having made this conclusion, Torrey begins writing his report for the management of IRI. In addition to the terms of the swap, Torrey includes the following information in the report:
* Implicit in the currency swap under consideration is a swap spread of 75 basis points over 2-year U .S . Treasury securities. This represents a 10 basis point narrowing of the spread as compared to this time last year. Thus, we can assume that the credit risk of the global credit market has decreased. Unfortunately, the decline provides no insight into the credit risk of the individual currency swap with GHS Bank, which could have increased.
* In order to decrease the counterparty default risk on the currency swap, we will need to utilize credit derivatives between the beginning and midpoint of the swap's life when this particular risk is at its highest. This is a significantly different strategy than we normally use with interest rate swaps. For interest rate swaps, counterparty default risk peaks at the middle of the swap's life, at which point we utilize credit derivative CQuntermeasures to offset the risk.
* Because currency swaps almost always include netting agreements and interest rate swaps can be structured to include mark-to-market agreements, we can significantly reduce the credit risk of these swap instruments by negotiating swap contracts that include these respective features. When negotiating these features is not possible, credit risk can be reduced by using off-market swaps that do not require an initial payment from IRI.
Six months have passed (180 days) since Torrey issued his report to IRI's management team, and the current exchange rate is now $0,085 per peso. The new term structure of interest rates is as follows:
Determine whether the excerpt from Torrey's report regarding the timing of peak credit risk is correct with regard to currency swaps and interest rate swaps.
The assumption is that the credit risk is low at the beginning of the swap because each counterparty accepted the creditworthiness of the other in order to initiate the transaction. By the middle of the swap's life, payments are coming due and credit risk increases. In interest rate swaps, the credit risk would then decline as the remaining payments were made towards the end of the swap's life. For currency swaps, however, with the exchange of notional principal, the final payment keeps credit risk high through the end of the swap life, causing it to peak between the middle and the end of the swap's life. (Study Session 17, LOS 6l.i)
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